死亡保険の必要性を考えるうえで役立つ死亡率グラフ(標準生命表をもとに作成)

死亡保険の説明のときに「万が一」という言葉をよく使いますが、それでは説明として弱いと思うので、正確な数字をもとにしてグラフを作りました。

FP横山

「万が一」と抽象的に言われましてもねぇ。

死亡率のグラフ

収入保障保険や定期保険など死亡保険の説明においては「一家の大黒柱に万が一のことがあったら大変ですので……」という流れで説明が行われますが、正確な数字を聞いたことのある人はほとんどいないのではないかと思います。

そこで、保険料算出の根拠となっている標準生命表の数字をもとにして、年齢ごとの死亡率をグラフにしてみました。これなら説明を受けた人も納得するのではないでしょうか。

※グラフを引用したい方はご自由にどうぞ。なるべく出典を記載するかリンクを張ってください。

全年齢のグラフだと、死亡保険に加入する65歳くらいの年齢までの死亡率がわかりにくいので、別に作りました。

30歳までの死亡率は男性1.22%/女性0.70%で、60歳までの死亡率は男性8.27%/女性5.35%、65歳までは男性12.15%/女性7.40%です(次項の表で確認してください)。

そのため、30歳の男性が60歳までに死亡する確率は約7%、65歳までなら約11%で、30歳の女性が60歳までに死亡する確率は約6.5%、65歳までなら約6.7%ということになります。「万が一」どころじゃないですね。

死亡率データ

日本アクチュアリー会のウェブサイトに掲載されていたデータ(生保標準生命表2018)を以下に引用します。累積死亡数と累積死亡率を独自に付け加え、この部分をグラフにしました。

(男性)

年齢生存数(人)死亡数死亡率平均余命累積死亡数(人)累積死亡率
0100,000810.08%80.77810.08%
199,919560.06%79.841370.14%
299,863360.04%78.881730.17%
399,827220.02%77.911950.20%
499,805140.01%76.922090.21%
599,791100.01%75.942190.22%
699,78190.01%74.942280.23%
799,77290.01%73.952370.24%
899,76390.01%72.962460.25%
999,75490.01%71.962550.26%
1099,745100.01%70.972650.27%
1199,735100.01%69.982750.28%
1299,725110.01%68.982860.29%
1399,714130.01%67.992990.30%
1499,701170.02%673160.32%
1599,684230.02%66.013390.34%
1699,662300.03%65.033690.37%
1799,632380.04%64.054070.41%
1899,594460.05%63.074530.45%
1999,548530.05%62.15060.51%
2099,495590.06%61.135650.57%
2199,436630.06%60.176280.63%
2299,374660.07%59.26940.69%
2399,308680.07%58.247620.76%
2499,241670.07%57.288290.83%
2599,173660.07%56.328950.90%
2699,107640.07%55.369590.96%
2799,042630.06%54.391,0221.02%
2898,979630.06%53.431,0851.09%
2998,916650.07%52.461,1501.15%
3098,850670.07%51.51,2171.22%
3198,783680.07%50.531,2851.29%
3298,715690.07%49.571,3541.35%
3398,646710.07%48.61,4251.43%
3498,575730.07%47.641,4981.50%
3598,502760.08%46.671,5741.57%
3698,426820.08%45.711,6561.66%
3798,344890.09%44.741,7451.75%
3898,256970.10%43.781,8421.84%
3998,1591070.11%42.831,9491.95%
4098,0521160.12%41.872,0652.07%
4197,9361260.13%40.922,1912.19%
4297,8101370.14%39.972,3282.33%
4397,6731470.15%39.032,4752.48%
4497,5251590.16%38.092,6342.63%
4597,3661720.18%37.152,8062.81%
4697,1941890.19%36.212,9953.00%
4797,0052080.21%35.283,2033.20%
4896,7982280.24%34.363,4313.43%
4996,5692500.26%33.443,6813.68%
5096,3192750.29%32.523,9563.96%
5196,0452990.31%31.614,2554.26%
5295,7463230.34%30.714,5784.58%
5395,4233470.36%29.814,9254.93%
5495,0763720.39%28.925,2975.30%
5594,7044000.42%28.035,6975.70%
5694,3054320.46%27.156,1296.13%
5793,8734690.50%26.276,5986.60%
5893,4035100.55%25.47,1087.11%
5992,8935550.60%24.547,6637.66%
6092,3396030.65%23.688,2668.27%
6191,7366570.72%22.838,9238.92%
6291,0797150.79%229,6389.64%
6390,3647750.86%21.1710,41310.41%
6489,5898380.94%20.3411,25111.25%
6588,7519011.02%19.5312,15212.15%
6687,8509661.10%18.7313,11813.12%
6786,8841,0341.19%17.9314,15214.15%
6885,8501,1091.29%17.1415,26115.26%
6984,7411,1931.41%16.3616,45416.45%
7083,5481,2901.54%15.5817,74417.74%
7182,2581,4001.70%14.8219,14419.14%
7280,8581,5251.89%14.0720,66920.67%
7379,3331,6652.10%13.3322,33422.33%
7477,6671,8222.35%12.624,15624.16%
7575,8452,0002.64%11.926,15626.16%
7673,8452,1992.98%11.228,35528.36%
7771,6462,4223.38%10.5330,77730.78%
7869,2242,6673.85%9.8833,44433.44%
7966,5572,9264.40%9.2636,37036.37%
8063,6313,1855.01%8.6639,55539.56%
8160,4453,4295.67%8.0942,98442.98%
8257,0163,6506.40%7.5546,63446.63%
8353,3663,8617.24%7.0350,49550.50%
8449,5054,0488.18%6.5454,54354.54%
8545,4574,1719.18%6.0858,71458.71%
8641,2864,24010.27%5.6462,95462.95%
8737,0474,24811.47%5.2367,20267.20%
8832,7994,19012.78%4.8471,39271.39%
8928,6094,06414.20%4.4875,45675.46%
9024,5453,86815.76%4.1479,32479.32%
9120,6773,60917.45%3.8282,93382.93%
9217,0683,29219.29%3.5286,22586.23%
9313,7762,93121.28%3.2489,15689.16%
9410,8442,540.4023.43%2.9891,69691.70%
958,304.002,137.4025.74%2.7493,83493.83%
966,166.601,740.3028.22%2.5295,57495.57%
974,426.301,366.7030.88%2.3196,94196.94%
983,059.501,031.3033.71%2.1297,97297.97%
992,028.20744.636.71%1.9598,71798.72%
1001,283.70511.9439.88%1.7899,22999.23%
101771.73333.4643.21%1.6499,56299.56%
102438.26204.6146.69%1.599,76799.77%
103233.66117.5150.29%1.3899,88499.88%
104116.1562.72654.01%1.2699,94799.95%
10553.4230.87757.80%1.1699,97899.98%
10622.54313.896161.64%1.0699,99299.99%
1078.64715.663365.49%0.9599,997100.00%
1082.98382.068269.31%0.8199,999100.00%
1090.91560.9156100.00%0.5100,000100.00%

(女性)

年齢生存数(人)死亡数死亡率平均余命累積死亡数(人)累積死亡率
0100,000780.0007886.56780.08%
199,922530.0005385.631310.13%
299,869330.0003384.671640.16%
399,836190.0001983.71830.18%
499,817110.0001182.721940.19%
599,80680.0000881.732020.20%
699,79880.0000880.732100.21%
799,79080.0000879.742180.22%
899,78270.0000778.752250.23%
999,77570.0000777.752320.23%
1099,76870.0000776.762390.24%
1199,76170.0000775.762460.25%
1299,75480.0000874.772540.25%
1399,746100.000173.772640.26%
1499,736120.0001272.782760.28%
1599,724140.0001471.792900.29%
1699,710160.0001670.83060.31%
1799,694190.0001969.813250.33%
1899,675210.0002168.823460.35%
1999,655230.0002367.843690.37%
2099,632250.0002566.853940.39%
2199,607260.0002665.874200.42%
2299,581270.0002764.894470.45%
2399,554280.0002863.94750.48%
2499,526290.0002962.925040.50%
2599,497290.0002961.945330.53%
2699,468300.000360.965630.56%
2799,438310.0003159.985940.59%
2899,408320.0003258.996260.63%
2999,376340.0003458.016600.66%
3099,342370.0003757.036970.70%
3199,305400.000456.057370.74%
3299,266440.0004455.087810.78%
3399,222490.0004954.18300.83%
3499,173540.0005453.138840.88%
3599,120580.0005952.159420.94%
3699,061640.0006551.191,0061.01%
3798,997700.0007150.221,0761.08%
3898,927760.0007749.251,1521.15%
3998,850820.0008348.291,2341.23%
4098,768870.0008847.331,3211.32%
4198,681920.0009346.371,4131.41%
4298,590980.0009945.411,5111.51%
4398,4921020.0010444.461,6131.61%
4498,3901100.0011243.51,7231.72%
4598,2791200.0012242.551,8431.84%
4698,1601330.0013541.61,9761.98%
4798,0271470.001540.662,1232.12%
4897,8801630.0016739.722,2862.29%
4997,7171780.0018238.792,4642.46%
5097,5391920.0019737.862,6562.66%
5197,3472050.0021136.932,8612.86%
5297,1412190.0022536.013,0803.08%
5396,9232340.0024135.093,3143.31%
5496,6892480.0025634.173,5623.56%
5596,4412600.002733.263,8223.82%
5696,1812730.0028432.354,0954.10%
5795,9082880.00331.444,3834.38%
5895,6203030.0031730.534,6864.69%
5995,3173220.0033829.625,0085.01%
6094,9953450.0036328.725,3535.35%
6194,6503680.0038927.835,7215.72%
6294,2823900.0041426.936,1116.11%
6393,8924090.0043626.046,5206.52%
6493,4824280.0045825.156,9486.95%
6593,0544500.0048424.277,3987.40%
6692,6044770.0051523.387,8757.88%
6792,1275100.0055422.58,3858.39%
6891,6165520.0060321.628,9378.94%
6991,0646020.0066120.759,5399.54%
7090,4626600.007319.8910,19910.20%
7189,8027310.0081419.0310,93010.93%
7289,0718120.0091218.1811,74211.74%
7388,2589060.0102617.3412,64812.65%
7487,3531,0060.0115216.5213,65413.65%
7586,3461,1130.0128915.7114,76714.77%
7685,2331,2300.0144314.915,99716.00%
7784,0041,3630.0162314.1217,36017.36%
7882,6401,5210.018413.3418,88118.88%
7981,1201,7040.0210112.5820,58520.59%
8079,4151,9170.0241411.8422,50222.50%
8177,4982,1530.0277811.1224,65524.66%
8275,3452,4070.0319510.4227,06227.06%
8372,9382,6690.036599.7529,73129.73%
8470,2692,9860.042499.132,71732.72%
8567,2833,2870.048858.4936,00436.00%
8663,9973,5810.055967.939,58539.59%
8760,4153,8610.06397.3343,44643.45%
8856,5554,1140.072756.847,56047.56%
8952,4404,3320.082616.2951,89251.89%
9048,1084,5020.093575.8256,39456.39%
9143,6074,6120.105765.3661,00661.01%
9238,9954,6510.119284.9465,65765.66%
9334,3444,6100.134244.5470,26770.27%
9429,7334,4830.150784.1774,75074.75%
9525,2504,2680.169013.8279,01879.02%
9620,9833,9670.189063.4982,98582.99%
9717,0163,5910.211043.1986,57686.58%
9813,4253,1560.235062.9189,73289.73%
9910,2692,682.500.261222.6592,41592.41%
1007,586.602,197.000.289592.4294,61294.61%
1015,389.601,725.800.320212.296,33796.34%
1023,663.801,293.700.3531297,63197.63%
1032,370.10920.10.38821.8198,55198.55%
1041,450.00616.890.425431.6599,16899.17%
105833.14387.10.464621.4999,55599.56%
106446.05225.50.505541.3699,78199.78%
107220.55120.830.547851.2399,90199.90%
10899.72358.9510.591151.1299,96099.96%
10940.77225.8880.634941.0299,98699.99%
11014.88410.10080.678630.9399,996100.00%
1114.78333.45150.721580.84100,000100.00%
1121.33181.01620.763080.74100,001100.00%
1130.31550.315510.5100,001100.00%